To: Interested Parties
From: Kevin Holst, Executive Director, DLGA
Re: New Poll: Flanagan Leads Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Despite $10 Million in Outside Spending Against Her
A new Public Policy Polling survey of Minnesota Democratic primary voters confirms that Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a clear lead in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, even as Trump donors and dark money groups, along with the cryptocurrency industry and a data center billionaire, have already poured $10 million into the race to try to buy the election for Angie Craig. Flanagan leads Angie Craig 43% to 36% with 43 days until Election Day.
What the Numbers Tell Us:
- Flanagan leads by 7 points with 43 days to go. A 43-36 advantage with 43 days remaining is a commanding position in any primary. The undecided universe still up for grabs is one where Flanagan’s profile and record, backed by Senators Tina Smith, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and the Minnesota DFL Party, gives her a closing argument Craig simply cannot match.
- The electorate is structurally built for Flanagan. With 93% of likely Democratic primary voters disapproving of Trump and 91% viewing ICE unfavorably, this is an electorate that wants a fighter, not someone who boasts about voting with Tom Emmer half the time, and not a candidate who voted to thank ICE. Flanagan has been on the right side of every one of those fights. Craig’s record, and the dark money interests now spending to defend her, tell a different story.
- Voters are choosing Flanagan, and rejecting Craig, in equal measure. Flanagan holds a 52% favorable rating against just 14% unfavorable, a net of +38. Craig sits at 47% favorable and 28% unfavorable, a net of +19. A 19-point gap in net favorability this late in a primary is not a margin that closes on its own.
- The coalition that decides Minnesota Democratic primaries has already chosen. Retiring Senator Tina Smith, who carries a 70% favorable rating among likely Democratic primary voters, has endorsed Flanagan, along with the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and a majority of DFLers in the State Legislature. Organized labor and grassroots organizations across the state are moving with her too. This is the coalition that turns out Democratic primary voters, and it is unified behind Flanagan.
$10 Million Spent and A Seven-Point Deficit to Show for It
Trump donors and dark money groups, backed by the cryptocurrency industry and a data center billionaire, have already dropped $10 million into this race trying to defeat Peggy Flanagan, and Craig still trails by seven points. Minnesota Democratic primary voters are among the most engaged and most progressive in the country, and they know dark money when they see it. Republican-aligned groups have spent hundreds of millions of dollars nationwide trying to trick Democratic voters into backing their preferred candidates, and they’re running that same playbook here to buy this election for Angie Craig, the only Minnesota Democrat who voted for the Laken Riley Act and who has boasted about voting with Tom Emmer nearly half the time. This dark money flood isn’t neutralizing Flanagan’s lead. It’s hardening it. The more they spend, the more it confirms what this poll already shows: Flanagan is the candidate of Minnesota Democrats, and no amount of outside money changes that.
The Bottom Line
Peggy Flanagan enters the final 43 days of this primary as the clear frontrunner – leading by 7 points, with a net favorability advantage of nearly 20 points over her opponent, in an electorate tailor-made for the campaign she is running. Dark money groups have already spent $10 million and have nothing to show for it. The voters of Minnesota know who Peggy Flanagan is, they know what she stands for, and they are with her.
Survey conducted June 25-26, 2026 by Public Policy Polling. N=604 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters. Full toplines may be viewed here.