TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Kevin Holst, DLGA Executive Director
As the 2027 Democratic primary for Kentucky governor begins to take shape, here’s a snapshot of where the race stands with newly released polling crosstab information: A May poll of 650 likely Democratic primary voters shows Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman with a commanding lead over Rocky Adkins, dominating in eight of Kentucky’s nine media markets. That includes a 39-point advantage in the Louisville market, home to the state’s largest concentration of Democratic voters.
1. Her lead is built on quality, not just name ID.
Coleman’s favorability sits at 46% favorable to 7% unfavorable, a net of +39 with very low negatives. Adkins is 32/8, a net of +24. Coleman’s stature from eight years in state governance has made her advantage far more efficient in growing her name ID than Adkins has managed to build his. As Kentucky Democrats get to know her better: as a teacher, coach, and the sitting Lt. Governor who has helped deliver record economic investment for every corner of the state, they like what they see.
2. The informed ballot shows she gains more from information than Adkins.
On the initial ballot, Coleman leads Adkins 40% to 14%, a 26-point margin. After hearing biographical information about both candidates, that becomes 49% to 19%, a 30-point margin. Her lead grew even as voters heard Adkins’ strongest case: decades of legislative experience and a senior role in the administration. After being presented with comparable biographies about both candidates, voters double down on their support for Coleman., She’s able to convert the most support when introducing herself to voters. This is the clearest evidence that Adkins can’t simply “introduce himself” his way back into the race. If his best material only grows her lead further rather than closing it, additional campaigning and paid media are likely to face diminishing returns.
3. She leads across every single demographic subgroup.
- Gender: Women 45-11, Men 36-18
- Age: 18-45: 42-12, 46-65: 41-16, 65+: 39-15
- Race: White 41-16, African-American 36-8
- Education: Leads at every level, from 34-12 among high school grads to 55-13 among 4-year degree holders
There’s no demographic lane where Adkins is competitive statewide.
4. Coleman dominates across the Commonwealth
Louisville is the single largest media market in the state, making up more than a third of the entire primary electorate. Coleman leads there 48-9, a 39-point margin, and voters in this massive market are already more decided than the state as a whole and breaking overwhelmingly her way. She also leads comfortably across the rest of the map: Lexington (39-22), Evansville (49-2), Cincinnati (34-4), Bowling Green (32-15), Paducah (34-4), and the Tennessee markets (37-10). The only media market where Adkins leads is Charleston, where he’s spent decades building name ID with his eastern Kentucky base, and a region where just 6% of Democratic primary voters reside. Coleman’s support is statewide, broad, and geographically diverse.
Initial Vote:
Informed Vote:
Bottom line: Coleman leads by 26 points initially and 30 points informed, with low negatives, broad demographic reach, and dominant strength in Louisville, the largest media market in the state, while Adkins’ base is confined to a market roughly a sixth its size. This is about as strong a starting position as a primary frontrunner can have, and presents an insurmountable challenge for Adkins.